The Dougherty Dispatch- What a Year!
January 22, 2026
Dougherty Dispatch: What a year!
Dear Market Observer,
Warm greetings and Happy New Year from the Dougherty Investment Advisors team. We hope you have been enjoying the holidays as they come to a close and we begin to put 2025 in the rear view mirror. Another phenomenal year for the stock market to say the least, as seen below. Indeed, the general stock market, as measured by the S&P 500 index, has increased about 26%, 25%, and 16% in 2023, 2024, and 2025, respectively. The average historical annual return is approximately 10%.
Will the run continue?
We have seen an incredible three years between 2023, 2024, and now 2025. Many of our clients, and investors in general, ask if we will really achieve another great year. There is always potential for a market dip, or even a more substantial bear market, due to an unexpected glitch, or a “Black swan” (unforeseen disease, a war, or a sudden economic problem).
With the current financial landscape, analysts are nearly unanimous in predicting a positive 2026. There has been continued economic growth, as many factors such as falling interest rates and artificial intelligence work their way into our lives. We have also seen consumer-friendly income tax changes from the recent tax bill. The fall in oil prices is predicted to lead to more consumer spending power and reduced corporate costs (fuel is Royal Caribbean’s biggest expense).
Lastly, we have seen the “First Five Days Indicator” show itself this year. Since 1950, a rise in markets the first five days of a given year, as we have seen this year, correlates with a positive full year for markets 83% of the time, and a 14.2% rise in the S&P 500 on average! While it is only a loose correlated indicator, it is a sign of incredible momentum.
Markets have risen for longer periods in the past, such as in the late 90s.
Many investors have lost a great deal of potential gains by keeping money on the sidelines due to their fear that markets have been too high for the last few years. However, there is always an opportunity to purchase stocks and bonds at bargain prices even with such market optimism.
We work hard to keep you, and all our clients, well positioned to achieve your financial goals and needs regardless of short-term market movement. Most of our clients’ portfolios contain instruments such as bonds and other forms of fixed income for stability and necessary income.
As stated many times before, our firm will continue to focus on quality and patience through detailed analysis and research. Such an approach has proven successful through the long-term in all market environments.
Thank you for making this year an incredible one. Our office has been teeming with Christmas gifts and New Years greetings, and we could not be happier to serve you!
We look forward to continuing to provide you with a tradition of excellence in managing your investments.
P.S. If we have assisted you or your family, we’d greatly appreciate your leaving a review (if you haven’t already) at https://tinyurl.com/DoughertyInvestments.
Wishing you a great new year,
The Dougherty Team
A Tradition of Excellence
4048 Deltona Blvd | Spring Hill, FL 34606
